Fat Tailed Distributions in Catastrophe Prediction

Climate Change and Risk Management: Challenges for Insurance, Adaptation, and Loss Estimation

Executive Summary Adapting to climate change will not only require responding to the physical effects of global warming, but will also require adapting the way we conceptualize, measure, and manage risks. Climate change is creating new risks, altering the risks we already face, and also, importantly, impacting the interdependencies between these risks. In this paper we focus on three particular...

The Review of Economics and Statistics

With climate change as prototype example, this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of lowprobability, high-impact catastrophes. Even when updated by Bayesian learning, uncertain structural parameters induce a critical “tail fattening” of posterior-predictive distributions. Such fattened tails have strong implications for situations, like climate change, w...

Association Between Plasma Metabolites and Insulin Sensitivity Indexes in Fat-Tailed and Thin-Tailed Lambs During Negative and Positive Energy Balances

Background: Fatty acid mobilization and inflammatory response of adipose tissues vary in various depots, hence the response of fat-tailed and thin-tailed sheep breeds to different energy balances was hypothesized to be different due to differences in proportion and metabolism of various adipose depots in these breeds which may affect whole body insulin sensitivity. Objective: Current study aime...

Wool production in some fat-tailed iranian sheep breeds I. some quantitative characteristics of karakul.mehraban,naeini,ghezel and bakhtiari breeds

Fat Tails, Exponents, and Extreme Uncertainty: Simulating Catastrophe in DICE

The problem of low-probability, catastrophic risk is increasingly central to discussion of climate science and policy. But the integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate economics rarely incorporate this possibility. What modifications are needed to analyze catastrophic economic risks in an IAM? We explore this question using DICE, a wellknown IAM. We examine the implications of a fat-taile...